NEW UK GOVERNMENT POLICY IS NOT BACKED BY SCIENCE
July 26, 2021 (Viz Release) – – The benefits from vaccination are ‘back end’ loaded. Businesses and individual customers need to know that the virus cannot differentiate between the nose or mouth of a vaccinated person from that of an unvaccinated person. Also, more importantly that there is no difference in transmission during the first 11 days*. Hence, having a different treatment for self-isolation, circulation and access to venues between vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the first 11 days, which importantly also covers the maximum transmission period** is not supported by the science.
– Source: Levine-Tiefenbrun, M., Yelin, I., Katz, R. et al Nat Med 27, 790–792 (2021).
** Track and trace data https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-11/tl-pss111920.php
Other stats from ONS 02/07/2021
Author: Paul Catherall
Notes for Editors
There are two main studies being quoted which show benefits of vaccination regarding a reduction in transmission, the Israel study referenced above, and the Public Health England study of transmission within households. https://khub.net/documents/135939561/390853656/Impact+of+vaccination+on+household+transmission+of+SARS-COV-2+in+England.pdf/35bf4bb1-6ade-d3eb-a39e-9c9b25a8122a?t=1619601878136
However, what is important is that both studies cover the entire duration of infection and transmission and hence they include the back-end stage of the illness. i.e. where severe disease and death are prevented by vaccination, and do not counter the assertion in this press release, it is actually the Israel study that provides the detail for this press release, and which should be being used for policies being applied specifically to the first 11 day peak transmission period.
Implications. The wrong message is being portrayed by using this research to justify policies before severe illness can set in. i.e. the first 11 days. This policy will cost lives, for example those of the vulnerable such as care home settings if the wrong message is acted upon and vaccinated carers aren’t treated the same as unvaccinated carers. As until a carer gets very sick, they transmit the virus in the same way as an unvaccinated carer. It also risks loosing the confidence of the public in important Government health messaging to decrease the overall disease burden in the population.